"How can I handle this situation in a way that most benefits Vladimir Putin?"- that's what he's thinking.
Telling us that there's no need to "frighten" Iran -Putin made clear yesterday that he's nowhere near ready for the kind of sanctions Barack Obama was hoping for. This comes at a point where another 6-12 mos of circular arguments and disingenuous foot-dragging is really all that's needed by the apocolyptic loons in Tehran.
So it now appears to many that the Kremlin is prepared to live with -or even welcomes- a nuclear-armed Iran. James Lewis at the American Thinker thinks that Putin has accepted it, and sees an incredible recklessness in the Kremlin's midwifing of an Iranian Bomb-
...What he is really hoping is that (a) Russia will get more influence and control in the Middle East by driving the Americans back, using Tehran as a proxy; (b) the inevitable nuclear arms race between Sunni Arabs and a new Persian Nuclear Caliphate will allow Russia to coordinate oil prices with OPEC, so as to raise add more gold to its coffers.
Both of those calculations are wild gambles, putting vast numbers of human lives on the line. Putin is letting the nuclear genie out of the bottle...
Putin's cover for the Tehran nuke program may be the biggest strategic mistake in history, bar none. In the next two years it will trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that wiser heads have been desperately trying to prevent.Now while Hillary purports that Russia "wasn't asked" to help with Iran, Prairie Pundit tells us that in-reality Russian FM Sergey Lavrov provided an icy reception to the idea of sanctions. Judged against the official Kremlin positition as opposed to an Iranian Bomb, "the Russian position is not supportable by common-sense or facts."
Putin is surely loving this position of ME influence- all he had to do to get here was sell nuclear technology to the Iranians at great profit, then obstruct the world's efforts to avoid the apocalypse that he made possible.
But the perception of Vladimir Putin as shrewd, clever, and calculating doesn't seem to dovetail with Russian aquiescense to an Iranian nuclear weapon.
One is left searching for the logic applied at this decisive moment- has he truly decided that an Iranian bomb is somehow in his and Russia's interest ... and that Israel can't -or won't- handle the problem?
In a potentially key development, we learn that Russian allegiance might have it's limits after-all. DEBKA (via Israpundit) claims that Putin is suspending the sale of much-needed S-300 AA missile batteries to Tehran- leaving them exposed to Israeli attack, while selling their rivals in Saudi Arabia the yet-more advanced S-400 system.
And this being the same Saudis who have reportedly already greenlighted an IAF attack on Iran.This abrupt and surprising U-turn does not fit-in with the Russia's otherwise supportive posture re. Iran- and is likely representative of cynical Kremlin opportunism, as was the plan all-along.
Putin is unprincipled, aggressive, ruthless, and very calculating- but not crazy. In their eyes, the serial Machiavellians in the Kremlin have already written the entire script... and it goes like this: the Russians will milk all sides for whatever they can get -especially the strategically and diplomatically clueless Obama.
In the end, they know Israel will not let the threat get too far along. Regardless of their ceaseless bluster, the Iranians know this too; morale in their armed forces as war approaches is reported to be in precipitous decline. Israel now plans to attack after the first of the year- and is actively preparing for a larger ME war with Iran's allies/terrorist proxies to ensue, as predicted here last December.
In the meantime, the Kremlin will be pulling-the-strings as pressure and worry builds on all sides... a situation they will continue to exploit to maximum Russian advantage. In the end... the Iranians will need to back-down or face-the-consequences... as the Kremlin pulls-out the rug at the last minute.
And if they then refuse, Tehran will be left to handle the Israeli Air Force without advanced Russian AA technology, as we now know- and in the ensuing confilct, the IDF will wipe-the-floor with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rump Hamas. Unlike limited engagements like southern Lebanon in 2006, the Israelis will fight to win, and win big- with infantry and armor from day one.
Putin has now showed his hand in withdrawing the sale of S-300 AA batteries- so the Iranians -who haven't left themselves much of an out- will need to decide their fate by the end of this year, or Israel will seal it. Such a humiliating defeat will surely renew anti-government sentiment, hopefully completing the democratization process began earlier this year in Tehran... as Barack Obama turns the United States into an irrelevant, impotent bystander.
And this being the same Saudis who have reportedly already greenlighted an IAF attack on Iran.This abrupt and surprising U-turn does not fit-in with the Russia's otherwise supportive posture re. Iran- and is likely representative of cynical Kremlin opportunism, as was the plan all-along.
Putin is unprincipled, aggressive, ruthless, and very calculating- but not crazy. In their eyes, the serial Machiavellians in the Kremlin have already written the entire script... and it goes like this: the Russians will milk all sides for whatever they can get -especially the strategically and diplomatically clueless Obama.
In the end, they know Israel will not let the threat get too far along. Regardless of their ceaseless bluster, the Iranians know this too; morale in their armed forces as war approaches is reported to be in precipitous decline. Israel now plans to attack after the first of the year- and is actively preparing for a larger ME war with Iran's allies/terrorist proxies to ensue, as predicted here last December.
In the meantime, the Kremlin will be pulling-the-strings as pressure and worry builds on all sides... a situation they will continue to exploit to maximum Russian advantage. In the end... the Iranians will need to back-down or face-the-consequences... as the Kremlin pulls-out the rug at the last minute.
And if they then refuse, Tehran will be left to handle the Israeli Air Force without advanced Russian AA technology, as we now know- and in the ensuing confilct, the IDF will wipe-the-floor with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rump Hamas. Unlike limited engagements like southern Lebanon in 2006, the Israelis will fight to win, and win big- with infantry and armor from day one.
Putin has now showed his hand in withdrawing the sale of S-300 AA batteries- so the Iranians -who haven't left themselves much of an out- will need to decide their fate by the end of this year, or Israel will seal it. Such a humiliating defeat will surely renew anti-government sentiment, hopefully completing the democratization process began earlier this year in Tehran... as Barack Obama turns the United States into an irrelevant, impotent bystander.
◆ DEBKA
_____________________________
