2012 GOP Primary Contest: How It's Looking (take our poll)

Iowa:   Bachmann 25% - Romney 21% 

    Pawlenty 9% - Cain 9% 

 

Michele Bachmann has now shot out-front in Iowa, according to the latest polling... and the numbers are telling indeed-

The Christian Post:

Although Bachmann’s lead is narrow and within the poll’s margin of error, the best news for Bachmann is her “favorable” number is ten points higher than Romney’s.

Interestingly, her “unfavorable” number is 14 percentage points lower than Romney’s, giving her an incredible 65-favorability margin.

She's clearly surprising a lot of people... and against the expectations of most, rising in New Hampshire now, too. The MSM has of course taken notice, and immediately commenced with appalling smear attacks, as is their custom. But even the far-left LA Times can see that Bachmann is running circles around them... and the money is pouring in.

  

In my opinion a strong Bachmann campaign -like we've seen thus far- keeps Sarah Palin on the sidelines, and perhaps running for the open (Kyl) AZ Senate seat from her new Scottsdale base. The Arctic Fox has even endorsed the idea of Rick Perry entering the race, making her appear uninterested in running herself from where I'm standing.

Alas, if Perry and/or Palin do enter it could all change overnight for Rep Bachmann, so she needs to continue to build maximum possible momentum leading up to those possibilities. But so far, so good for this talented, principled TEA Party firecracker.

Increasingly unlikely to pull off a victory in Iowa, Mitt Romney is also slipping as Bachmann gains in New Hampshire... where Romney is said to own a house. 

I don't know how many people care about where his various pads are, but Flipper's political support is shallow... tepid... and fickle: this man will never be the Republican nominee for president, imho- just doesn't seem like the Man of the Hour, I can't see it.

And consider that if I'm wrong, and Mittens pulls it off: here comes Trump as an independent, a worst-case scenario for the GOP... but they'll have brought that on themselves by not running a conservative in a TEA Party era that demands it.

Tim Pawlenty isn't impressing anybody by turning on Bachmann early in an attempt to stunt her ascent in Iowa- this guy has the personality of a (broken) parking meter, and looked like a two-faced worm for not confronting Mittens on RomneyCare when presented a golden opportunity to do so in the first debate.

It was probably over that night for "nice guy" T-Paw- fundraising efforts have gone nowhere. His proposals are largely sound, but to me he comes across as frustrated and charmless, lacking the confidence, grace, and charisma necessary to ensure the removal of Obama from  power and lead this country back to greatness.

How can you not love Herman Cain- a cool guy, a real patriot- and what a story.  But his lack of campaign experience, staff turmoil, and shallow understanding of international affairs in a perilous world has this real conservative unable to gain support outside of a fervent base, and thus also unable to break into the upper tier with Bachmann and Romney. 

He now sits at around 9% in Iowa, basically tied with T-Paw. But with Team Cain in disarray, he's having a tough time raising money after an initial burst online- it appears that a bit of Bachmann's rise is coming at his expense.

The others? 

Well, Newt is out of money and unloved-- and Santorum, Huntsman, and Ron Paul are not -and will never be- first tier candidates for the Republic nomination... forget it.

And your opinion, please...

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Update 1: Bachmann (video): 

"Government needs to go on a diet" -here-

Update 2: Bachmann Goes Into Overdrive -here-

More Iowa polling data -here-

ChristianPost   Weasel Zippers   Macon.com   RCP   PPP

Free Republic   The Slate   The Other McCain  The Iowa Republican

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Morris: It's Going to be Trump, Gingrich, Huckabee, or Bachmann in 2012

You can pretty much forget about 
Romney, Pawlenty, Cain...Palin, too

Dick Morris on Hannity:

Donald Trump: "the issue has become 'is there a candidate that really knows what he's doing (competence)?'... "... and when you compare a guy who's made a billion dollars from dealing with the Chinese, who's got a net worth of seven, eight, ten billion- who's created hundreds of thousands of jobs, against a community organizer... that's a pretty good fight."

"... the issue is the economy, the issue is the whole country falling apart...and our whole economy going socialist. And you can't ask for any better spokesperson for the free-market... economic laissez faire "WIN" system
-and American exceptionalism- than Donald Trump.  

If anything, he's a winner... and ultimately right now the United States needs a winner."

Michelle Bachmann: "What a refreshing candidate- intelligent, savvy... a tax lawyer... the only one who had the guts to vote against that phony deal that Boehner put down with Reed and Obama... a charismatic candidate."

Mike Huckabee:"I think Huckabee has a tremendous capacity to win, because he's really had the most exposure. He's shown himself to be a very likable, charismatic, warm, values-oriented person who's incredibly knowledgeable..."

Newt Gingrich:  "...if we could ever get Newt Gingrich as the Republican nominee against Obama in a debate- everybody would pay to buy tickets to that"

"You have the intellectual thinker... but everyone's concerned about his negatives... he's got a year."

Mitt Romney: "He's the only one I'm actually opposed to, because of his position on health care- and I think what he did in Massachusetts pretty much disqualifies him."

"I think he was proud of the bill (RomneyCare) until a year ago."

Sarah Palin: I think Palin can't get in if Huckabee runs and/or Bachmann runs... both have a superior claim in Palin's base."

"I think Palin's great... but she has so much baggage that's been piled on her by a sexist, outrageous liberal media..."

_____________________________________________

Morris also added that Pawlenty and Santorum really don't have a prayer (ironic for an evangelical lol)... too much competition out there (contrary to popular belief)- got to think that rules out Herman Cain, too.

And I would add that there is very little daylight between what Dick Morris is saying this week and my own thoughts on the race... except for that I don't find Newt or the Huckster particularly impressive as candidates.

Interestingly, he also sees Obama facing a troublesome 2012 primary challenge from a left he went and got all riled-up... only to completely disappoint them on the HC public option and in never-ending military action overseas.

Expect Dennis "The Menace" Kucinich coming hard at Obama's now-widely exposed left flank...

FoxNews DickMorris.com YouTube

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GOP's Bold 2012 Budget Proposal would Save $4 Trillion over Next Ten Years (video)

Tea Party Hero and House Budget Committee Chairman 

Paul Ryan to release Reaganesque plan tomorrow...

BigFurHat

Although this year's budget battle remains deadlocked with obstinate libs who didn't get the message last November -or are keen to see the Cloward-Piven strategy through to full fruition- it's sure heartening to see House Republicans -after some squishyness in the 2011 stalemate- not allowing an unwanted status quo to be forced upon us...

The author of the bill -fiscal hawk Rep Paul Ryan (R-Wi)- will be presenting a comprehensive long-term plan for tackling the insane level of spending in this country on Tuesday... one that's also likely to buy the GOP some political capital for any immediate deal-making required to avoid a government shutdown. Appearing on Fox News Sunday, Ryan said it includes serious, pro-growth tax reform to help swell federal coffers along with the resurgent US economy this would bring. 

But I'm real happy to report that the GOP actually appears serious about fulfilling the campaign promises of last year... as Mr Ryan's proposal goes some ways beyond what was recommended by the Obama's (specious) deficit commission:

The Hill:

Asked about the scale of his budget's spending reductions, Ryan said they would exceed $4 trillion. "We're looking at more than that right now," Ryan said on Fox News Sunday. "We're fine-tuning our numbers with the CBO literally today, over the weekend. But we're going to be cutting a lot more than that." 

As The Hill reported last week, Ryan said his plan tackles the kind of spending cuts which are at the center of the current-year debate as well as larger systemic cuts. 

"We intend to not only cut discretionary spending and put caps on spending, you have to address the drivers of our debt," Ryan said. "We need to engage with the American people on a fact-based budget, on stopping politicians from making empty promises to people and talk to the country about what is necessary to fix these problems." 

Of the three major entitlement programs, Ryan's budget will seek to make major changes to Medicare and Medicaid. 

"Medicare itself, literally, crowds out all other government spending at the end of the day," Ryan said. "We can't sustain that. We have got to get Medicare solvent." Ryan said that his plan was not a voucher program, but a "premium support system"... 

On Medicaid, Ryan's budget aims to reform the way the program is funded. "We propose block grants to the states," Ryan said, but would not offer specific numbers. "We've had so much testimony from so many different governors saying give us the freedom to customize our Medicaid programs, to tailor for our unique populations in our states. We want to get governors freedom to do that."

Rather than helping to deal with the short-term 2011 budget mess San Fran Nan left, the resulting impasse has been an opportunity for political scheming by the Left: Democratic leadership thinks they can make the GOP look bad by forcing a shutdown, while painting Republicans as "extreme" at every turn.  

But it's not working, and the Republicans may have now found a way to avoid being defined by the battle over this year's budget... one that might just pull us back from the edge of the abyss: 

Meanwhile, Dingy Harry's glaringly fraudulent budget numbers went wholly unchallenged by the Obammunist bootlicks on 

Face the Nation -here-

The Hill   Fox News Sunday   AP via MyWay   Instapundit   

Paul Ryan.house.gov   memeorandum

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DIABLO Turncoat Dede Scozzafava Paid Back Promptly by Democrats... with a Job!

After dropping out of a 3-way congressional race to endorse the Democrat over NY Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in NY-23 back in 2009, Dede Scozzafava has gotten her payback- a cush appointment from Democratic NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.

For many of us, the way the RNC was comprehensively out-witted and out-maneuvered by the unprincipled and ruthless Democrats came as a bit of a shock... and an early indicator that Michael Steele was really not up to the job in the face of a Chicago-Machine-style full court press in this country.

Dede Scozzafava -after taking over a million dollars in GOP campaign cash- appeared to have made a deal with somebody from the dark side, and once Hoffman's TEA-party-propelled surge pushed her into 3rd place she not only dropped out to back Pelosi's handpicked favorite Bill Owens over Hoffman (a mere two days before the vote), but even went so far as to make 11th-hour robo-calls on behalf of the Dem. With the Democratic machine finding a job for her yesterday, it all comes full-circle for anyone paying attention.

Scozzafava also humiliated Newt Gingrich, heavily damaging his political stock in the age of the TEA party. Likely on RNCC orders, Gingrich argued fervently for the campaign of the ACORN-endorsed, pro-abortion, pro-stimulus, and pro-CARD CHECK Scozzafava while denigrating Hoffman... thereby setting a pattern of similar GOP missteps in backing disloyal scumbag RINOs in Florida and elsewhere.

And Scozzafava did all this while still calling herself a Republican, as she continues to do... although perhaps not for long. Country star John Rich had another name for her: Dede Schizophrenic 

Blogger Stacy McCain was on-the-ground covering the whole debacle in NY-23 back in 2009... and now offers this succinct conclusion:

She finally gets her 30 pieces of silver:

Former North Country Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava — who became a household name across America during a tough 2009 congressional race — was appointed today by Gov. Andrew Cuomo as deputy secretary for local government at the state Department of State.

Scozzafava, a Republican, dropped out of the 23rd Congressional District race three days before the 2009 election and infuriated some Republicans by throwing her support to Democratic candidate Bill Owens – not Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. . . .

In late December, Scozzafava told The (Syracuse) Post-Standard she was still a Republican.

“I’m still a Republican. I felt an obligation to the people that elected me to the state Assembly to stay in the party that I’ve been enrolled in for my entire life, at least throughout the end of my term in office. We’ll just see from there,” she said.

What Dede Scozzafava did can never be forgiven, nor should it ever be forgotten. Let her name be known to history as an epithet, a synonym for betrayal: Judas. Benedict Arnold. Quisling. Scozzafava.

Amen to that-

The Other McCain

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Establishment Wakes and Smells the TEA: Republican Freshman Kristi Noem to Join Congressional Leadership

Smart move, Mr. Speaker...

In a savvy political move also indicative of the growing respect the TEA Party constituency has garnered, GOP House leaders say they will grant incoming freshmen far more say in the party’s direction than most first-term lawmakers receive...

WSJ:

House Republican Leader John Boehner and his No. 2, party Whip Eric Cantor, will notify newly elected Republicans Tuesday that one member of their class will get a seat at the leadership table and another two will be given spots on the Steering Committee, which decides committee assignments and chairmanships in the new Congress. 

“The incoming GOP freshman class will have a larger voice at the leadership table and on the Steering Committee than previous GOP freshman classes in previous Congresses,” according to an advanced copy of the letter. Members of the class will run for these positions, along with those of class president and freshman representative to the policy committee, on Nov. 17 after the entire Republican caucus selects its leaders for the next two years, according to the letter. 

With 80-plus new members, the freshmen class will be an influential group. Many claim strong ties to Tea Party activists who bickered frequently with the party establishment in the run-up to last week’s midterm election. 

Messrs Boehner and Cantor and others have promised to make sure these newly elected lawmakers play a prominent role in deciding the party’s path forward. 

The letter to freshmen is signed by Mr. Boehner, the Ohio Republican who is in line to be House speaker, and Mr. Cantor, the Virginia Republican who is expected to become majority leader in the next Congress.

Interestingly, South Dakota's new US Congressional Representative Kristi Noem -who is often compared to The Arctic Fox herself- has thrown her rancher's hat in the ring. And according to Neil Cavuto's sources, she's already got it bagged:

CNN:

Two of the sources said that South Dakota's Kristi Noem- has expressed interest in the leadership post and appears to have the backing of the current GOP leadership.

A source close to Noem confirms that she is interested in the leadership slot and has talked to several members of the Republican leadership about it.

Noem would have to be elected by the freshman class of Republican House members.

If she got the spot, it could help the new House Republican majority with two issues: bringing someone associated with the Tea Party movement into the leadership fold, and adding another woman.

Kristi Noem is a true Reaganite conservative who's quite telegenic and well-spoken... Gipperesque, even.

Rep-Elect Noem actually holds the all-time fundraising record for GOP congressional challengers, and it is impressive indeed for a Capitol Hill rookie to be offered such a position of influence and power from day one.

She's good...very good, and has GOP rising-star written all over:

This is the new face of the vehement and tireless patriotic opposition you needlessly created out of thin-air, Mr President...
coming to getcha.

So have you ordered the MSM/HuffPo/Kos scum that prop you up to get-on with the Palinization yet...you sniveling coward?

Gateway Pundit  h/t Hot Air   Kristi for Congress   The Caucus

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